December Market Summary

With 2016 officially in the record books, we can at least say it ended on a good note.

Decembers total sales were up 6.14% over last Decembers sales, while the listing inventory was down 13.25%. This decrease in listing inventory, and increase in sales, helped keep the market relatively balanced with a 4.04 absorption rate. The benchmark price in December declined -3.84% which also reflects the years decline of -3.84% in the benchmark price dropping to $440,650.

Interestingly enough the $800,000+ market has continued to out perform last year at this time which is actually helping drive the average price for the year up 2.16% to $479,522. It is interesting to see the benchmark price decline while the average price increased. This suggests that while the lower markets are still seeing some market adjustments; the higher end markets that were hit harder seem to be showing signs of recovery.

November sales slide into old patterns

Coming off a month of stronger sales activity, November’s housing market returned to previous trends. Year-over-year monthly sales totaled 1,227 units, which is nearly three per cent lower than last year and 17 per cent below long-term averages.

“November was the first full month with CMHC’s new lending rules in effect,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “As suspected, the gains in last month’s sales were temporary. Stringent conditions for borrowers are converging with the current economic climate and weighing on demand.”

While supply levels eased in November, the decline in sales resulted in a slight rise in months of supply. This caused benchmark home prices to contract even further. City-wide prices totaled $436,200 in November, a 0.6 per cent decline over the previous month and nearly 4.1 per cent below last year’s levels.

Detached home prices totaled $498,300 in November, making it the first time since early 2014 that the monthly benchmark price dipped below $500,000. Despite this price change, the detached resale sector has still fared better than most of the high density sectors, as it has not faced the same city-wide inventory pressure coming from the new home market.

Year-to-date detached sales have declined by three per cent compared to last year, but have also seen some modest improvements in recent months in the high end of the market, which is likely a byproduct of larger price adjustments.

“These monthly figures aren’t a big surprise given the dynamics of our market right now,” said CREB® president Cliff Stevenson. “We’ve seen pockets of sales activity in certain areas, but also lots of months where the expectations between buyers and sellers just aren’t matching up. November was one of those months.”

“Again, it can’t be overstated how important it is for housing consumers to keep asking questions and drilling down on what’s happening in their specific area,” adds Stevenson. “This kind of exploration and learning is how good real estate decisions get made in any market.”

On October 26/16 CMHC news release. Most Canadian Housing Markets Overvalued, Price Growth to Slow Through 2018: CMHC Reports
OTTAWA, October 26, 2016 — Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) is finding strong evidence of problematic conditions for Canada overall. Home prices have risen ahead of economic fundamentals such as personal disposable income and population growth, resulting in overvaluation in many Canadian housing markets. However, the combination of overvaluation and overbuilding should help slow the growth in resales and house prices and lead to a moderation in the pace of housing starts.
Toronto and Vancouver were flagged as RED.
Calgary was flagged as YELLOW.
Read the full article on the CMHC web site. More potential problems for Calgary’s already deflated real estate market.

October 17, 2016 is a critical date – changes to mortgage insurance rules were announced by the federal government and will take effect that day. Do you understand the changes and how they will impact your clients and the real estate industry?

Mortgage insurance rules will change to require all insured mortgages to undergo a ‘stress test’ from the lender. That test will require the buyer to qualify for a mortgage at the Bank of Canada posted rate, currently 4.64%, even though they would still receive the contract rate.

The buying power of the client will be lowered by the need to qualify at the higher rate.

Example (as provided by a mortgage professional)

Family A is qualifying for a mortgage using the following information:

Current Annual Family Income $87,000
Household Debt Payments $700 per month
Property Tax Payments $3,000 per month
Down Payment 5%
Mortgage Rate 2.49%

Result:
•Qualifying for a mortgage today, Family A qualifies for a purchase price of $450,000.
•Qualifying for a mortgage after October 17, 2016, given the need to qualify at the Bank of Canada rate of 4.64%, Family A qualifies for a purchase price of $360,000.

Questions

Ask your clients to speak with a mortgage professional about their circumstances. In many cases, the changes will affect their buying power and adjustments may need to be made to their search criteria.

Accepted Offers to Purchase signed before October 17, 2016 will qualify under the current rules provided that the mortgage is funded by March 1, 2017.

Soft demand to impact home prices, CREB® forecasts
by CREB on August 12, 2016

The economic situation in Alberta has impacted all aspects of the economy, including housing demand. However, price declines have been only slightly lower than expectations, as easing amounts of new listings has prevented steeper gains in supply levels, CREB® said today in its 2016 mid-year update.

Benchmark prices have trended down this year and there is no expected change in direction for the remainder of 2016. City-wide annual benchmark prices are expected to contract by 3.8 per cent this year. Since the start of the downturn, monthly prices have declined by nearly five per cent, with the most severe pullbacks in the apartment sector.

“While the market as a whole continues to be challenging for home sellers, the highest price declines are typically in the neighbourhoods and sectors where the largest amount of supply has built up, either from the resale market or the competing new home market,” said CREB® president Cliff Stevenson. “In this kind of market, both buyers and sellers continue to be forced to adjust their expectations. Not all districts and product segments are reacting the same way.”

With no near term changes expected for Alberta’s economy, housing demand will remain soft for the second consecutive year. Overall sales in Calgary are expected to contract by eight per cent this year, following a 26 per cent decline in 2015.

“The scope of this economic downturn has been worse than original estimates,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “Job levels have contracted more than expected, which means we have more people looking for work and more people making the decision to leave the city—not exactly an environment that supports growth in housing demand.”

Layoffs, weak employment prospects and low oil prices are expected to challenge our market for the remainder of 2016. The risk to the housing market lies mainly with additional resale inventory and new home supply.

“There are some roadblocks in this market, but people still need to buy and sell real estate, regardless of the current operating environment,” said Stevenson. “The big thing is making sure consumers are well informed about how the market is reacting in specific segments and within specific communities, so they can make sound decisions. That’s the unique value add of a real estate professional.”

Home prices down, but not out
by CREB on July 04, 2016

Calgary home prices continue to slide in most areas of the market, but not at the rate that many might expect. This is partly due to June’s resiliency in the detached and semi-detached sectors of the market, where sales compared to new listings and standing inventory started returning to more balanced levels.

“The detached market has been gradually moving towards more balanced conditions, helping to prevent price levels from declining at the faster rates we saw in the previous two quarters,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “While this is welcomed news for sellers, it’s very likely that pricing challenges will persist in the housing market until economic conditions start to improve.”

Detached benchmark prices totaled $502,400, which is 0.4 per cent higher than last month, but 3.4 per cent lower than last year’s levels. This is the first time in eight months that detached prices recorded a monthly gain, helping ease the quarterly decline from 2.2 per cent in the first quarter to 0.7 per cent in the second quarter.

Overall sales activity remained relatively weak in June, falling by seven per cent to 2,028 units. Inventory levels went in the other direction and continued to climb in June to 5,973 units, 16 per cent higher than last year. Both the attached and apartment segments of the market have recorded inventory gains around 30 per cent, far greater than the year-over-year increase of five per cent in the detached sector.

Higher inventories and weaker demand continue to have a larger impact on pricing in the apartment and row sectors. June apartment prices slid by another 0.1 per cent over last month, pushing the average year-to-date benchmark price down 5.3 per cent below last year. Attached product experienced a monthly slide of 0.3 per cent, mostly due to steeper price declines in row style product.

“The price adjustments that we’ve seen in the past year have allowed some buyers to get into homes that were previously unattainable,” said CREB® president Cliff Stevenson. “This is especially true for homeowners with financial stability and a good amount of equity in their home. With so much choice out there, it’s giving consumers an opportunity to find their ideal home at a price they can afford.”

CREB June 1st

Housing supply swells in cool spring market

Calgary’s housing inventory was on the rise once again in May as new listings climbed and sales slowed to 1,923 units.

“While recent oil price gains may have some feeling optimistic, weakness in the labour market continues to impact housing demand,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “Job losses are spreading into other sectors, wages are declining and unemployment levels remain high. At the same time, we’re seeing housing supply levels rise in the rental, new home and resale markets.”

Inventory levels rose by 14 per cent in May to a total of 6,148 units. Every product type is experiencing these gains, but the largest inventory growth has occurred in the apartment and attached categories. Together, these sectors represent half of all resale inventories in Calgary.

“The resale apartment market has been the most difficult for sellers,” said CREB® president Cliff Stevenson. “They are competing with improved selection in the lower price ranges of the detached and attached markets, and facing increased competition from the new home sector, where builders are offering incentives to attract potential buyers.”

While apartment resale supply remains 22 per cent below the May high of 2,055 units in 2008, the combination of rising supply in the apartment sector and steep declines in sales activity has elevated months of supply to nearly six months.

The apartment sector of the market has experienced buyers’ conditions for more than 10 months, so the impact on pricing is more dramatic, compared to the detached and attached sectors.

In May, the apartment benchmark price totaled $278,500, a monthly and year-over-year decline of 0.7 and 5.6 per cent. In the detached and attached markets, home prices totaled $500,500 and $332,100, a year-over-year decline of 3.4 and 4.3 per cent.

Market imbalance in Calgary’’’s residential resale housing market continued to weigh on citywide prices in April.

Much like the previous month, year-over-year sales fell while new listings increased, resulting in inventory gains across all sectors of the market.

As a result, benchmark prices in the city declined by 0.4 per cent from last month, and 3.4 per cent from last year, to $441,000.

For sellers, the reality of seven consecutive months of price declines has started to sink in, said CREB® president Cliff Stevenson.

“From re-considering the listing of their home to lowering expectations on price, sellers are beginning to adjust to the current market reality,” he said. “However, some buyers in the market are still not willing to pull the trigger because they expect even bigger discounts. And so that gap between buyers’ and sellers’ expectations still persists across many product types and locations.”

Despite this, the detached sector fared better relative to the other sectors of the market. While detached sales activity has fallen by over four per cent so far in 2016 compared to last year, the sales to new listings ratio improved in April. This prevented sharper inventory gains and caused months of supply to move toward more balanced levels.

The same cannot be said of other market sectors. Year-to-date apartment and attached sales declined by a respective 19 and 13 per cent compared to last year. Slower sales, combined with rising inventories, ensured that market conditions continued to favour buyers in these segments.

“While the weak economic climate is influencing demand, the apartment and attached sectors are further impacted by increased supply in the competing new home sector and rental markets,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “This is one of the contributing factors to the steeper price declines recorded in the apartment sector.”

Since the start of the price declines, monthly unadjusted benchmark apartment prices have declined by 7.6 per cent, while semi, row and detached have declined by a respective 5.9, 4.6 and 4.1 per cent.

CREB
Housing prices trend down in March
Unemployment impacting housing activity

Home prices declined further in March as economic conditions weigh on Calgary’s housing market.

Calgary’s benchmark price totaled $442,800 in March, a 0.49 per cent decline over February and 3.51 per cent lower than levels recorded last year.

“With no improvement in the labour market, it’s no surprise that we continue to face downward pressure on housing sales activity and prices,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“Provincial unemployment rates are at the highest level recorded since the early ‘90s,” said Lurie, adding that Calgary’s unemployment rate in February rose to 8.4 per cent, which is higher than the provincial average of 7.9 per cent.

March home sales in Calgary totaled 1,588 units, 11 per cent below the same time last year and 28 per cent lower than long-term averages for the month.

Calgary also saw housing supply gains in most price ranges. Inventory levels rose by seven per cent to 6,084 units in March. Overall, months of supply has averaged five months in the first quarter of 2016.

“As we move into spring, we are starting to see more foot traffic at open houses and showings from potential buyers,” said CREB® president Cliff Stevenson. “For now, this activity hasn’t translated into improved sales in most segments of the market.”

The apartment sector has been the hardest hit by the recent downturn. After the first quarter of the year, apartment sales totaled 554 units, a 17 per cent decline over the same period last year.

Apartment benchmark prices have been trending down since late 2014. In March, benchmark apartment prices totaled $281,300, seven per cent lower than levels recorded prior to the slide and 4.93 per cent lower than levels recorded last year.

The detached and attached sector has also felt the brunt of Calgary’s weakening economy. Detached and attached home prices have dropped by four per cent from the recent peak.

“Homebuyers continue to wait and see if there are going to be further declines in home prices before making an offer,” said Stevenson. “Timing the bottom of the market is proving to be quite a challenge in the housing market we are faced with now.”

Glad to help if your thinking of buying or selling.
Sellers: The Spring Market is now here don’t miss it if your thinking of selling. This could be you best opportunity to sell this year!
Buyers: This year will offer a great opportunity for you to move up. That larger home you wanted 2 years ago may now be in your price range.