Media release: Unemployment rate slows housing market recovery

City of Calgary, September 4, 2018 – Easing sales, gains in new listings and elevated inventory levels continue to slow Calgary’s recovery in the housing market in August.

Persistent oversupply in the Calgary housing market continued to weigh on prices in August. Citywide benchmark prices edged down over previous months by 0.8 per cent and are 2.4 per cent below last year’s levels.

“Calgary’s employment market has persistently high unemployment rates at 7.9 per cent and recent job losses in full time positions. The struggles in the employment market are one of the factors weighing on our local housing market,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“A slow recovery in the energy sector combined with tighter lending conditions and competition from the new home sector are also contributing current housing market conditions.”

Citywide sales totaled 1,490 units this month, down nearly seven per cent from last year and 14 per cent below long-term trends.

Sales and price declines were not consistent across all districts and product types. Prices have recently trended down across most areas based on year-to-date figures, but have remained comparable to last year’s levels in the City Centre and West districts of the city.

“Both buyers and sellers need to be realistic about their objectives. Buyers need to be aware that price changes differ depending on what and where you are buying. The decline in sales does not mean price declines across the board,” said CREB® president Tom Westcott.

“Sellers need to be well informed to be competitive. They need a good understanding of what has been selling around them and how their property compares to homes that have successfully sold.”

HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached
•Year-to-date detached sales eased across each district. Elevated inventory levels caused months of supply to remain just below five months in August and continued to weigh on housing prices across all districts.
•Detached benchmark prices totaled $497,000 in August. This is a 0.74 per cent decline over last month and 2.6 per cent below the previous year.
•Prices have trended down in all districts in August, however, on a year-to-date basis prices remain above last year in both the City Centre and West.
•Year-to-date average detached benchmark prices have eased by 0.56 per cent over the previous year, reducing some of the price recovery from last year.

Apartment
•Year-to-date sales totaled 1,892 units, seven per cent below the previous year. However, sales did not ease across all districts. Sales in both the North East and North West districts remained slightly higher than levels recorded last year.
•New listings in the apartment sector eased compared to the previous year, preventing more significant gains in inventory levels. However, oversupply in this sector persists, causing further price declines.
•Year-to-date city-wide prices eased by nearly three per cent, with the largest declines occurring in the North East, South and East districts. Overall prices remain nearly 14 per cent below 2014 highs.

Attached
•Like the apartment sector, sales have eased in the attached sector. However, year-to-date sales have improved in some districts of the city for semi-detached and row product. Semi-detached sales improved in both the North West and West districts.
•Row sales remained relatively stable in both the North East and East districts of the city.
•Oversupply in the semi-detached sector has placed some downward pressure on prices this year, but year-to-date average benchmark price remains higher than last year in the City Centre, North
•East and East districts of the city. Gains in these areas were enough to offset declines in other areas, keeping semi-detached prices one per cent higher than last year.
•Year-to-date row prices eased by 1.5 per cent over last year. However, price movements ranged from relatively stable levels in the City Centre and North West to declines of nearly seven per cent in the North East district.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie
•Sales activity in Airdrie continued to ease compared to last year totalling 851 units so far this year.
•Despite some of the recent pullback in new listings, year-to-date new listings remain just above last years levels keeping inventories elevated at 597 units.
•The persistent oversupply in the market started to weigh on homes prices. Detached home prices totaled $366,900, 0.7 per cent below last month and 3.4 per cent below last year. When considering year-to-date averages, the benchmark price is 1.5 per cent below last years levels.

Cochrane
•Year-to-date sales activity in Cochrane totaled 431 units. This is a decline over the previous year, but activity remains comparable to activity recorded over the past five years. This makes it a centre that has not seen the same pullback in demand seen in many other areas.
•The challenge in the Cochrane area is the continued rise in supply. New listings continue to rise and are well above normal levels for the area. This has pushed up inventories to new highs, causing the months of supply to rise.
•The excess supply in the area is starting to weigh on prices. Detached benchmark home prices in August edged down over the previous month to $426,100. Despite the recent easing, prices remain comparable to the previous year both for the month of August and year-to-date average figures.

Okotoks
•Easing sales in Okotoks were met with further gains in new listings causing inventory levels to edge up to 280 units.
•Recent gain in inventory compared to sales have placed some downward pressure on prices in the area. However, the easing was not enough to cause year-to-date prices to fall below last years levels.
•Detached benchmark prices averaged $436,350 so far this year, just above last year’s levels.

Patience required in Calgary’s housing market recovery

City of Calgary, August 1, 2018 –

Recent struggles in the job market, accompanied by yet another interest rate increase, is piling on to the decisions potential purchasers have to make in the housing market.

The month of July saw 1,547 units sold in Calgary, nearly five per cent below last year. New listings eased to 2,964 units, causing inventories to total 8,450 units. With more supply than demand, prices continued to edge down, with a citywide average of $435,200. This amounted to a month-over-month price decline of 0.30 per cent and year-over-year decline of 1.89 per cent.

“Despite some positive momentum in some aspects of our economy, our job market has continued to struggle as of late, with some easing in total employment levels over the past few months and persistently high unemployment rates,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“Also, the Bank of Canada raised rates again in July. Rising costs, combined with a slow recovery, are weighing on the demand for resale homes in the city. At the same time supply remains high and is resulting in an oversupplied market.”

Citywide months of supply have risen for each property type and currently range from nearly five months in the detached sector to seven months in the apartment sector. These elevated levels have been placing pressure on prices in the city.

Detached benchmark home prices totaled $501,300 in July, down 0.4 per cent from last month and over two per cent from last year’s levels. Year-to-date average benchmark prices in the detached sector remain just below levels recorded last year.

The apartment ownership sector continues to see the steepest declines, with year-to-date benchmark prices averaging $257,343, three per cent below last year and nearly 14 per cent below 2014 highs.

“In a buyers’ market, it’s critical for all parties to have the most up-to-date information to make a fully informed decision, whether you are buying or selling,” said CREB® president Tom Westcott.

“A REALTOR® can help make an accurate determination on how much to sell a home for or how much is too much when purchasing one.”

HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached
•Oversupply issues continue to worsen in each district of the city compared to last year. However, compared to historical conditions, conditions today remain better than in 2016 in both the West and City Centre districts.
•Year-to-date, the West and City Centre areas have recorded prices higher than last year’s levels and continue to edge towards price recovery. Benchmark prices in the West have averaged $733,329 this year, comparable to previous highs.
•City Centre benchmark prices have averaged $693,243, nearly three per cent below previous highs. Most districts have recorded detached prices that remain over four per cent below previous highs.

Apartment
•Easing new listings in the apartment condominium sector have prevented any further gains in the amount of inventory in the market.
•Supply levels remain elevated compared to sales, keeping year-to-date prices three per cent below last year’s levels and nearly 14 per cent below previous highs.
•Citywide inventory levels remain just below last year. July inventories edged down in the North East, North, North West, South and East areas of the city compared to the previous year.
•Levels remain elevated by historical standards, but any reductions in inventory can help reduce oversupply.

Attached
•Like the other sectors, attached sales have been easing this year, with 2,225 sales this year representing a 15 per cent decline over the previous year.
•Gains in new listings pushed up inventory levels and months of supply compared to last year.
•Citywide year-to-date semi-detached prices have eased by nearly one per cent compared to last year. Benchmark price changes have ranged from a three per cent decline in the North West district to a six per cent increase in the South district. Despite the annual gain this year in the South district, semi-detached prices remain nearly five per cent lower than that district’s peak.
•Year-to-date benchmark row prices have increased on a citywide basis due to gains in the City Centre, North and North West districts. The annual gain is a positive move towards recovery, but row prices remain well below previous highs in every district of the city.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie
•2018 Airdrie residential sales have totalled 732 units so far, which is 11 per cent lower than the same period last year. Sales are at the lowest level when compared to the same period in the past six years.
•Year-to-date new listings remain just above last year’s levels, totalling 1,600 units and reaching a new peak when compared to the same period in previous years. Total inventories in Airdrie have averaged 544 units this year, approximately 100 units higher than the same period in 2017.
•The rise in inventory, combined with easing sales, has caused months of supply to average over 5.2 months for the year, impacting prices.
•Detached benchmark prices have averaged $372,386 so far this year. This is 1.29 per cent lower than in 2017.

Cochrane
•Year-to-date residential sales in Cochrane totalled 380 units. Compared to the same period in 2017, this number has declined compared to last year. However, total sales continue to be above long-term averages and levels during 2015-16.
•New listings are also at historical highs and have reached a new peak of 862 residential units. This has pushed year-to-date average inventory levels up to monthly levels of 390 units and causing months of supply to average six months for this year.
•Despite gains in supply on the market, detached benchmark prices in Cochrane remain relatively stable. Year-to-date detached prices averaged $425,714, just above last year but still nearly four per cent below peak levels.

Okotoks
•Total residential sales in Okotoks have totalled 320 units so far in 2018. A decline over the previous year and below long-term trends.
•New listings remain elevated and comparable to periods in previous years. This has kept inventories at near-record levels, with year-to-date average levels being totalling 248 units.
•Months of supply have averaged 5.4 months this year, higher than historical standards. However, the elevated levels have not prevented prices from starting to recovery.Overall, year-to-date detached benchmark prices have averaged $436,786 this year, just above last year but nearly three per cent below peak levels.

Weak sales persist in Calgary and beyond

City of Calgary, July 3, 2018 –

Many Canadian energy-related municipalities within Alberta and Saskatchewan have seen housing markets struggle over the past few years, resulting in price declines.

The recent mortgage rule changes and higher lending rates are factors weighing on demand and prices across some of those areas.

“While our economy is no longer in a recession, persistently high unemployment rates, concerns over long-term growth, rising lending costs and stricter qualifications are all weighing on the housing demand,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“Growth in new listings is starting to ease for some property types, but it is not enough to prevent continued supply growth and, ultimately, an oversupplied housing market.”

Weak sales activity in Calgary continued into June, as residential sales for the month totaled 1,896 units. This is 11 per cent below last year and 12 per cent below long-term averages. New listings continued to rise, with further inventory gains and months of supply now at 4.7 months.

High inventories in comparison to sales have generated more widespread buyers’ market conditions, causing downward pressure on prices. The city-wide benchmark price in June totaled $436,500. This is just below last month and 1.13 per cent below last year’s levels.

The detached segment of the market accounts for over 60 per cent of overall sales activity and makes up over 54 per cent of the inventory, with 4,817 units as of June. While sales have fallen and inventory has been rising across most price ranges, inventory levels for homes priced under $500,000 remain well below peak levels.

“In any market it’s extremely important to be well-informed, whether it’s about the process to get pre-approved for a mortgage or having the most up-to-date information about the prices in the community you are buying or selling in,” said CREB® president Tom Westcott.

Lending conditions weigh on housing demand

City of Calgary, June 1, 2018 –

May sales activity continues to ease with the largest declines occurring in the detached sector. Additional gains in new listings continue to increase inventory levels.

City-wide sales activity in May totaled 1,726 units and is 19 per cent below last years’ levels. This is 24 per cent below longer term averages. Sales activity in the detached sector declined to levels not seen in over a decade.

“The impact of rising lending rates and stricter qualification levels is causing demand to ease across all product types,” said CREB^® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“Economic conditions have improved compared to several years ago, but the pace of economic recovery has not been enough to outweigh the changes in lending conditions.”

Market supply has not adjusted to sales activity and is pushing months of supply to 4.9 months. Elevated supply relative to demand prevented any further price recovery in the market and city-wide residential benchmark prices totaled $436,900 in May. This is similar to last month and 0.6 per cent below levels recorded last year.

Detached sales and inventories have risen across all price ranges, but the amount of excess supply has been most notable for homes price above $500,000. Months of supply for the higher price ranges remain high compared to the past several years. However, they still remain below record levels that occurred post financial crisis (2008 – 2009).

“The changes in the lending market are preventing some people from moving up in the market. Uncertainty has also caused others to wait on making changes to their housing situation,” said CREB^® president Tom Westcott.

Soft sales continue in April

Prices steady, but struggles in Alberta economy weighs on housing

City of Calgary, May 1, 2018 –

Changes to the lending industry and a challenging economic recovery are weighing on sales activity in Calgary’s housing market.

Supply levels have not adjusted to the weaker demand environment, and that is preventing price recovery.

“Slower sales do not come as a surprise, given the economy has not yet improved enough to offset the impact of changes in the lending industry,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“While the rising inventories are being monitored, prices have remained relatively flat as gains in some areas of the city have been offset by declines in other areas.”

The easing sales trend persisted through April in Calgary’s housing market. Calgary sales totaled 1,518 units in April, which is 20 per cent below last year and 25 per cent below long-term averages.

The detached sector has seen the largest decline, with year-to-date sales totaling 2,991 units, 27 per cent below the 10-year average.

Inventory levels in April totaled 7,324 units. This is a 32 per cent rise over last year, but well below the monthly high of 10,129 units recorded in 2008. Supply compared to demand has risen, but city-wide prices have remained relatively stable, totaling $436,500 in April, a monthly and annual gain of 0.21 per cent.

“The reality is that there’s selection heading into the active spring market,” said CREB® president Tom Westcott.

“For many sellers, they have to decide what price they are willing to accept for a lifestyle change. At the same time, buyers need to understand the supply dynamics and price movements in the specific area, as they may not align with their expectations.”

So far this year, apartment and attached sales have eased to levels that are comparable to 2016. However, rising supply in both markets have pushed months of supply to the highest levels recovered over this four-month period, which is preventing any significant shifts in pricing trends.

A Bumpy Road to Recovery

Calgary housing market prices hold, but sales fall

Calgary, March 1, 2018 –

Residential home sales declined in February, but a decline in new listings helped keep prices steady this month.

Sales totaled 1.094 units in February, 18 per cent below last year’s activity. Easing sales occurred across all property types this month, which outpaced the sales growth that occurred in January. After the first two months of the year, sales activity remains well below longer-term averages.

“Housing market conditions are still adjusting to rising lending rates and changes in lending requirements. This process is expected to be bumpy, with demand adjustments leading the changes,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“However, it is important to remember that it is early in the process and the impact on prices will ultimately be dependent on the supply response.”

A decline in new listings was not enough to prevent further gains in inventory levels, but it offset some of the impact of slower sales activity. In the detached sector, one of the largest declines in sales occurred in the $600,000 – $999,999 range, while this price range also recorded gains in new listings.

“This is a market where the fundamentals of a sound pricing strategy need to be understood by sellers. At the same time, savvy buyers typically have a clear understanding of how much of a mortgage they can get,” said CREB® president Tom Westcott.

“With all the recent changes, potential purchasers should be obtaining pre-approvals so they understand exactly what they can afford prior to making an offer on a home. It also provides them flexibility in this market.”

Citywide benchmark prices totaled $434,300 in February, which is just above levels recovered last month, but comparable to levels recorded last year. While year-over-year price growth remained relatively stable in both the detached and attached markets, apartment prices remained three per cent below last year’s levels.

Housing Market Déjà Vu in January

As expected, Calgary sales activity similar to last year

Calgary, Feb. 1, 2018 – The new year opened predictably, with monthly figures close to the Januarys of the past three years.

With new mortgage rules and rates officially in effect, sales activity in January remained comparable to last year, as rising sales for attached properties were not enough to offset declines in both the apartment and detached sector.

Overall January sales totaled 958 units, nearly two per cent above last year and 11 per cent below long-term averages.

“2018 was kicked off with higher rates and the official implementation of the new mortgage requirements. While it is too early to see the impact of these changes, so far, January levels are consistent with what we saw last year,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“The recovery will be bumpy, and we will continue to monitor the impact of the lending changes relative to the overall economic climate.”

Stable sales were met with rising new listings, causing further gains in inventory levels and impacting prices. Citywide, unadjusted prices totaled $432,300, 0.21 per cent below last month and 0.25 per cent below last year’s figures. Prices eased across all product types compared to last month, but price declines were more pronounced in the apartment and attached sectors.

In the detached sector, new listings rose with declining sales activity for product priced over $500,000. However, product priced between $300,000 and $399,999 saw an increase in activity. This will be an adjustment to the new reality buyers and sellers face, as pockets of the market will experience a mismatch between supply and demand.

“Sellers needs to be aware of the competing supply in the market. This can influence the timing of their decision, along with setting realistic expectations regarding time on the market and selling price,” said 2018 CREB® president Tom Westcott. “For buyers, getting pre-approved for a mortgage is essential, along with getting advice from a REALTOR® to get into a home they will be happy with.

January CREB update

Two sides of the story

Sales activity for all product types improved in December and pushed monthly sales to long-term averages for the second month in a row.

However, new listings also rose, keeping inventory elevated compared to typical levels for December. With more supply remaining compared to sales, benchmark prices edged down for the fifth consecutive month.

“Many of the economic indicators continue to post modest improvements, including improving sales. However, demand gains have not outpaced the additional supply coming into the housing market.

This is creating some of the bumpiness in terms of price recovery,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie, who added that prices have stayed comparable to last year.

The gap between detached supply and demand closed in the first half of 2017 and supported early price growth. As prices improved, this was perceived as a signal for many who delayed selling their home, and caused a late rise in inventory that limited price growth.

Overall, the detached benchmark price in 2017 averaged $504,867, 0.63 per cent above last year’s levels.

Challenges continue to face the apartment sector, with elevated supply in the resale market. The new home and rental markets weighed on this sector. The excess supply caused average annual benchmark prices to decline by four per cent this year. This is a total annual adjustment of nearly 12 per cent since the start of the recession.

In the attached sector, the first half of the year saw an improvement in sales relative to inventory levels. This supported stronger price gains in the second and third quarter. However, a late rise in inventory levels took some of the momentum away from price growth. On an annual basis, attached prices totaled $332,325, comparable to last year’s levels.

“This year, we saw a rise in the number of consumers willing to purchase in the market with the expectation that the economy had already shifted. There were also many who waited to list their property until prices showed more stability,” said CREB® president David P. Brown.

“Those who acted were typically driven by long-term plans that best suit their current lifestyle. We are ending the year with stronger sales in the last quarter, but supply levels are holding back price gains. The year played out as expected with a transition from price declines to general price stability in most sectors of the market.”

Nov 1/17 from CREB

Status quo for Calgary’s housing market

Prices remain similar to last year, but ease in October

October’s housing market conditions closely echoed previous month’s trends with easing sales, rising inventories and downward price pressure. Like last month, the monthly activity was not enough to derail gains that occurred earlier in the year.

October sales and inventories totaled 1,467 and 6,463 units for a month of supply of 4.4. Several months of elevated supply in comparison to demand has weighed on pricing over the past several months. The city-wide unadjusted benchmark price in October totaled $438,900, 0.6 per cent below last month, but comparable to last year.

“While economic activity has improved in 2017, it will take some time for this to translate into housing market growth. There have been employment gains, but most of this has occurred in areas with traditionally lower income,” said CREB^® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“We also continue to face weak migration, higher lending rates and changes to lending policy. The combination of these factors is impacting housing demand, which is prolonging the pace of recovery.”

Resale inventory gains occurred in each product type and across most districts in the city. The largest gains were in districts with substantial new development growth.

In the detached segment, the largest number of units added to inventory occurred in the $300,000 – $500,000 price range. This represents nearly 42 per cent of all detached inventory. 62 per cent of the inventory in the city-wide market is priced below $500,000.

“There is far more product availability in the lower price ranges now compared to several years ago,” said CREB^® president David P. Brown.

“This provides more options for potential buyers concerned about their purchasing power given all the changes in the lending market.”

The largest monthly price change occurred in the apartment condominium sector which recorded an unadjusted monthly decline of 0.8 per cent, resulting in a 13 per cent spread over monthly highs recorded in 2014.

Despite some recent adjustments, prices in the attached and detached segments remain relatively stable compared to last year.

Housing recovery remains a work-in-progress

Market sees modest inventory gains, but overall prices inch up

Sales exhibited stable growth through the first half of the year in the Calgary housing market, but the number of transactions slowed slightly in July compared to last year.

City-wide sales totaled 1,637 units, six per cent below July 2016 levels. Year-to-date sales activity totaled 11,957 units, nine per cent above last year.

“Sales growth exceeded expectations so far this year. Clients were re-entering the market after delaying decisions until there were some signs of economic improvement,” said CREB® president David P. Brown.

“However, this recovery will require patience. There continues to be many new and resale ownership options available. This reduces the sense of the urgency for many consumers.”

Easing sales were met with higher new listings, causing further gains in inventory levels. City-wide months of supply rose to four months, as inventory levels reached 6,675 units this month. This is 17 per cent higher than last year, but still below July highs recorded in 2008.

“Modest improvements in the labour market and net migration were necessary to support the turnaround in the housing market,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“However, current inventory levels and changes in the lending market continue to weigh on housing demand. Easing demand growth combined with elevated levels of supply will slow the pace of price recovery in our market.”

Driven by detached and attached housing sales, city-wide prices in July improved over the previous month and the previous year. However, it is nearly four per cent below previous monthly highs. Year-to-date benchmark averages remain 0.44 per cent below last year’s levels.

Despite the current month activity, the detached sector continues to demonstrate conditions that are more balanced compared to last year.

Apartment condominium product continues to face oversupply in the resale and new home sector, causing further price declines. In July, the apartment benchmark price was $266,200. This is a three per cent decline over last year and nearly 12 per cent below peak prices.

For a full analysis of the Calgary housing market in 2017, please refer to CREB®’s 2017 mid-year update to be released in mid-August.