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CREB April 1/20 Covid weighing on housing

Saturday, April 4th, 2020

Media release: COVID-19 weighing on housing market

City of Calgary, April 1, 2020 –

After a strong start to 2020, economic conditions have dramatically changed, as COVID-19 is impacting all aspects of society.

The economic impact is starting to be felt across many industries. This includes the housing market.

March sales activity started the month strong, but quickly changed, as concerns regarding the spread of COVID-19 brought about social distancing measures. This had a heavy impact on businesses and employment.

“This is an unprecedented time with a significant amount of uncertainty coming from both the wide impact of the pandemic and dramatic shift in the energy sector. It is not a surprise to see these concerns also weigh on the housing market,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

By the end of March, sales activity had fallen 11 per cent compared to last year. This is 37 per cent lower than long-term averages. The drop in sales pushed March levels to the lowest recorded since 1995.

“The impact on the housing market will likely persist over the next several quarters,” said Lurie. “However, measures put in place by the government to help support homeowners through this time of job and income loss will help prevent more significant impacts in the housing market.”

New listings dropped by 19 per cent this month. This decline in new listings compared to sales caused supply levels to ease and helped prevent a larger increase in oversupply. Overall, the months of supply remain just below five months, similar to levels recorded last year.

Prices were already forecasted to ease this year due to oversupply in our market. In March, the citywide benchmark price was $417,400. This is nearly one per cent lower than last year’s levels. The reduction in both sales and new listings should help prevent significant price declines in our market.

However, price declines will likely be higher than originally expected due to the combined impact of the pandemic and energy sector crisis.

HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached

  • Detached sales eased by 15 per cent this month, driven by pullbacks in all districts except the North, which remained flat compared to last year.
  • The decline in sales was met with a larger decline in new listings, causing inventories to fall by 17 per cent and keeping the months of supply slightly lower than last year’s levels.
  • Detached benchmark prices have remained relatively unchanged compared to last year at $480,800. Price declines this month continue to be the highest for the City Centre, North East and West districts.

Apartment

  • With 217 citywide apartment sales in March, this was the only category to record a year-over-year gain. Much of the gain was due to improving sales in the South, South East and North West districts.
  • New listings this month did ease, helping support a small decline in inventory levels.
  • Persistent oversupply has resulted in continued downward pressure on prices. In March, the citywide benchmark price eased by more than two per cent compared to last year for a total of $243,700.

Attached

  • Both semi-detached and row sales declined this month compared to last year. Like the other property types, there was also a significant reduction in new listings.
  • The decline in new listings helped push down inventory levels for both property types, but it was not enough to prevent a rise in the months of supply.
  • However, this segment was oversupplied prior to the recent changes, impacting prices. As of March, prices remained nearly one per cent lower than last year’s levels for both semi-detached and row properties.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

  • Like many other areas, Airdrie saw a decline in sales activity, along with a reduction in new listings and inventory. The reductions in supply and demand helped prevent any significant changes to the months of supply.
  • While the full impact of the COVID-19 crisis has not yet played out in the housing market, March prices remained comparable to last year’s levels.

Cochrane

  • Both sales and new listings fell this month compared to last year, causing inventories to fall to the lowest levels in five years. Like many other markets, Cochrane remains oversupplied, with easing prices.
  • The March benchmark price was $398,700. This is nearly two per cent lower than the previous year.

Okotoks

  • Trends changed this month, with flat sales and a decline in new listings. The decline in new listings was enough to cause a significant reduction in supply levels and the months of supply fell below five months.
  • Prices are trending down on a monthly basis, but remain comparable to last year’s levels, with a March benchmark price of $405,000.

Dec 1 CREB market favours buyer

Wednesday, December 4th, 2019

Calgary housing market still favours the buyer
City of Calgary, December 2, 2019 – Year-to-date residential sales in the city remain just above last year’s levels due to improvements in the attached sector so far this year.
However, November sales activity eased over last year’s levels, mostly due to pullbacks in the apartment sector.
Meanwhile, new listings eased enough relative to sales to cause inventories to ease and the amount of oversupply to come down slightly compared to last year’s levels.
“Achieving more stable conditions will take time. Sales activity has been settling in at lower levels and is likely being influenced by the economic conditions and uncertainty weighing on our market,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.
“While the amount of supply in the market continues to ease, the persistent oversupply continues to weigh on prices.”
As of November, the citywide unadjusted benchmark price was $419,100. This is just below last month’s levels and two per cent lower than last year’s levels.
Market conditions continue to vary depending on price, location and product type. For example, prices have ranged from a year-to-date decline of nearly eight per cent for row product in the East district to a two per cent increase for semi-detached product in the North district.
Larger price declines are often caused by high supply in the new-home and resale markets relative to demand.

HOUSING MARKET FACTS
Detached
Detached sales improved in November over last year’s levels, mostly due to growth in the $400,000 – $500,000 range. However, sales in November and overall activity remain low by historical standards.
Despite some recent gains in sales activity, year-to-date sales remain comparable to last year’s levels and 20 per cent below longer-term trends. However, detached sales have improved in both the North West and South districts this year.
Improving sales, combined with further declines in new listings, helped reduce inventories in this sector compared to levels recorded last year. However, supply levels remained elevated based on seasonal comparisons.
Like some of the other sectors, the detached market is slowly moving toward more balanced conditions. However, it is still oversupplied, and this trend continues to weigh on prices.
The detached unadjusted benchmark price was $481,500 in November, slightly lower than last month’s levels and two per cent below last year’s prices.
Apartment
Apartment sales pulled back this month, causing year-to-date sales to remain comparable to last year’s levels and 21 per cent below long-term averages.
The monthly decline in sales was mostly driven by pullbacks in the City Centre, North West and South East districts. However, on a year-to-date basis, sales activity improved in the North, West and South East districts.
New listings rose across most districts, causing city-wide inventory gains this month. Much of the gains were a result of a rise in new-home listings filtering into the resale market. Despite the monthly shift, year-to-date new listings and inventories remain lower than last year’s levels.
Weaker sales, combined with rising inventories, pushed November months of supply to over seven months. This is higher than last year’s levels of more than five months.
Persistent oversupply in this sector caused prices to ease. The year-to-date benchmark price declined by more than two per cent.
Attached
Year-to-date sales remain more than six per cent higher than last year’s levels and just below long-term averages.
New listings eased this month compared to last year and sales improved. Inventories continue to ease from the monthly highs recorded last year. While the attached market remains oversupplied, the market continues to improve over last year’s levels.
November semi-detached prices eased by two per cent compared to last year. The largest year-over-year declines occurred in the City Centre district.
Row prices eased by nearly four per cent compared to last year. Annual declines ranged from more than seven per cent in the North East district to nearly two per cent in the North West and East districts.

Nov. 1st CREB sales activity

Wednesday, November 6th, 2019

Homes under $500,000 moving to more balanced conditions
City of Calgary, November 1, 2019 – Sales activity in October improved by nearly 10 per cent compared to last year, driven mostly by improvements for apartment and attached product.
New listings also eased, which helped reduce inventory levels and the oversupply in the market. Despite the move to more balanced conditions, the market remains oversupplied and prices continue to remain below last year’s levels.
“Employment has shifted in the city, with job growth occurring in our non-traditional sectors and often at a different pay scale. This is consistent with the shift to more affordable housing product,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.
“However, at the higher end of the market the amount of oversupply is rising, as supply cannot shift enough to compensate for the reductions in demand. This is likely causing divergent trends in pricing and preventing prices from stabilizing across the city.”
This is a market where signs of improvement are not consistent across all product types and price ranges. Improvements in sales are occurring in the lower price ranges across all product types. This is not yet translating into price shifts, as persistently elevated supply levels continue to place downward pressure on prices.
As of October, citywide unadjusted benchmark prices were $422,900, just below last month’s levels and two per cent lower than last year’s levels.
HOUSING MARKET FACTS
Detached
Sales activity this month came in just above last year’s levels, thanks to growth in all districts except the North East and North. However, year-to-date citywide levels remain comparable to last year’s levels and over 19 per cent lower than longer-term trends.
New listings continued to ease this month, but at a slower pace than levels recorded over the past eight months.
Improvements in sales and easing new listings brought down inventory levels by 15 per cent. With 3,391 units in inventory, the months of supply is just under four months. This is a decline compared to last year, but it is still high based on longer-term trends. Months of supply eased across all districts except the North, likely due to the increased pressure coming from the new-home sector.
Unadjusted benchmark prices eased over the previous month due to declines in all districts except the South East and East. Overall, prices in October remained nearly two per cent lower than last year’s levels and nearly eight per cent lower than previous highs.
Apartment
Apartment sales continued to improve this month and new listings eased. This helped reduce inventory levels and brought the months of supply down just under 6 months. Despite improvements, the market remained firmly in buyers’ territory.
Year-to-date improvements in sales were driven by gains in the North, West and South East sectors.
Inventory declines have occurred in all districts except the South East.
Overall, year-to-date prices remained over two per cent lower than last year’s levels and nearly 17 per cent lower than peak pricing. However, there are some signs of stabilization in prices this year, with prices in the North East, South East and East remaining comparable to last year.
Attached
The attached market continues to show the largest increase in sales, with year-to-date growth of nearly seven per cent. Improvements occurred across all districts except for the North West and North East.
New listings have eased by eight per cent so far this year, causing inventory declines and reductions in the amount of oversupply.
Like most sectors, this segment remains oversupplied, which is causing price adjustments. As of October, semi-detached and row prices remained two and four per cent lower than last year’s levels, respectively. Prices continue to ease across nearly all districts and remain well below previous highs.

Sept 2019 CREB update

Thursday, September 5th, 2019

Sales activity increase led by lower-priced homes
City of Calgary, September 3, 2019 – Increased sales and easing new listings reduced housing inventories in August. Sales were primarily driven by homes priced below $500,000.
“Employment numbers have been improving, but mostly in industries that are traditionally lower paid,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “This is contributing to the shift that we are seeing in the housing market, with growth being limited to product priced below $500,000.”
Rising sales for homes priced under $500,000 offset sales declines in the higher price ranges. This caused August sales to improve by six per cent compared to last year.
Sales activity improved for all product types. The growth was largest for apartment-style and attached properties.
Attached sales increased for the sixth consecutive month compared to the previous year. This is also the only property type with year-to-date sales higher than last year’s levels.
New listings continued to ease this month, which caused inventory to decline. This is helping the market shift toward more balanced conditions.
The amount of downward pressure on prices is also easing. At $426,000, the unadjusted citywide benchmark price this month remained comparable to last month, but 2.6 per cent lower than last year’s levels.
Despite improving sales and reductions in inventory, housing market recovery will take time. Inventory levels remain elevated and sales activity is still well below historical norms. The market continues to favour the buyer, with over four months of supply.

HOUSING MARKET FACTS
Detached
Year-to-date detached sales remain just below last year’s levels, but sales improved in the South and North West districts this month.
Citywide growth has been driven by homes priced under $500,000. Meanwhile, easing sales and elevated inventories among homes priced above $500,000 have increased the months of supply, pushing it further into buyers’ market territory.
Benchmark prices in August ranged from a year-over-year decline of over five per cent in the South district to a decline of nearly one per cent in the South East.
Apartment
For the second month in a row, sales activity improved for apartment-style homes, but these gains were met with a rise in new listings. This prevented any significant adjustments to inventory levels and kept the months of supply elevated.
Sales activity remains just below last year’s levels. On average, the amount of inventory in the market this year has eased compared to last year.
Citywide benchmark prices in August eased compared to last year, but the East, South East and North East districts recorded modest gains. Despite those gains, prices remain well below 2014 highs.
Attached
For the sixth consecutive month, year-over-year attached sales improved in the city. This has resulted in year-to-date sales of 2,665 units, nearly a five per cent increase compared to the previous year. At the same time, new listings continue to ease, causing further reductions in inventory.
The months of supply have moved from over six months at this time last year to under five months in August.
These improvements have supported some monthly gains in benchmark prices, but August benchmark prices remain 2.6 per cent below last year’s levels.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS
Airdrie
Despite a year-over-year decline in sales activity this month, year-to-date sales sit just above last year’s levels. Unlike Calgary, most of the growth here has been driven by gains in the detached sector. Year-to-date new listings have eased by 13 per cent and inventories have edged down relative to last year.
A general trend toward more balanced conditions has eased downward pressure on prices. The benchmark price was $334,600 in August – 1.8 per cent below last year’s levels.
Cochrane
Fuelled by reductions in new listings and stable sales, inventories continue to trend down. This has supported some easing in the months of supply, which dropped from nearly eight months in August of last year to five months this year.
Reductions in oversupply have supported more stability in monthly prices. The benchmark price was $408,000 in August, nearly four per cent below last year’s levels.
Okotoks
Improving sales in August contributed to year-to date sales of 373 units, slightly higher than last year’s levels, but still below long-term averages. The number of new listings continues to ease. This is causing inventories to decline and reducing the months of supply.
Months of supply dropped from nearly 10 months last year to under five months this August. Despite this reduction in oversupply, benchmark prices so far this year have remained over four per cent below last year’s levels.

May 1 CREB update

Thursday, May 2nd, 2019

May 1 CREB update.
April brings a slight inventory decline
City of Calgary, May 1, 2019 – There have been no significant changes occurring in sales activity, but the number of new listings coming onto the market continues to ease relative to 2018 levels.
The decline in new listings was enough to start chipping away at overall inventory levels, which have eased slightly compared to last year.
The slight adjustment in supply levels has helped support further reductions in the months of supply, which was 4.6 months in April. While this level still represents oversupply in our market, it does reflect improvement from the nearly seven months of supply that we saw at the start of the year.
“Demand remains relatively weak in the resale market. However, if supply levels continue to adjust, this could help reduce the amount of oversupply and eventually support some price stability,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.
As of April, the total residential benchmark price in Calgary was $415,900. This is slightly higher than last month, but still nearly five per cent lower than last year’s levels.
Citywide sales were 1,547 units in April, two per cent higher than last year’s levels. Year-to-date sales remain nearly six per cent lower than last year and are 26 per cent below longer-term averages.
“Sales have been improving mostly in the lower price ranges, causing tighter supply conditions in that segment. This will likely have a different impact on price trends in the lower price ranges depending on location,” said Lurie.

HOUSING MARKET FACTS
Detached
Detached sales improved by nearly three per cent in April compared to last year, due to gains in homes priced under $500,000. However, with 930 sales, activity still remain 24 per cent below long-term averages. Recent gains were also not high enough to offset pullbacks earlier in the year, causing year-to-date sales to fall by over five per cent.
Improving sales did not occur across all districts. In April, there was growth in the North East, North West, South and South East districts of the city. Despite some signs of sales improvement, overall sales activity remains well below 10-year averages throughout every region in the city.
April detached inventories citywide continue to remain just above levels recorded last year. Months of supply remain relatively unchanged at four months.
The amount of oversupply has varied significantly depending on the area of the city. Months of supply has only risen in the City Centre, South and West districts of the city.
Despite some of the adjustments occurring in the detached sector, overall April prices remain lower than last year’s levels across all districts. Year to date, the largest year-over-year declines occurred in in the City Centre, North West and South districts.
Apartment
Despite the affordability of apartment condominiums, sales activity continues to fall across the city and in most districts. There have been 714 apartment condominium sales so far this year, the lowest level since 2001.
The decline in new listings has started to outweigh the sales decline, causing inventories to ease. As of April, resale apartment condominium inventories totaled 1,546 units, 16 per cent lower than inventory levels last April.
The easing inventories have also caused the months of supply to decline to just above six months. While this is still a buyers’ market, this trend could help ease the downward pressure on prices if it continues.
Apartment condominium prices in April totalled $250,400, comparable to last month, but over two per cent below last year’s levels and nearly 17 per cent below 2014 highs.
Attached
Attached sales activity improved compared to last year’s levels for the second straight month, almost offsetting the declines occurring in the first two months of the year. Year-to-date sales were 1,113 units, nearly one per cent below last year’s levels, and 14 per cent below long-term averages.
Year-to-date sales have improved in all districts except the City Centre, North West and West.
Improved sales and easing listings have helped prevent further inventory gains in this sector and overall months of supply have trended down to five months.
Following several months of prices trending down, semi-detached benchmark prices in April rose over the previous month. However, prices remain over five per cent below last year’s levels at $395,300.
Row prices were $284,900 in April, over five per cent below last year’s levels.

Feb 1/19 CREB housing update

Sunday, February 3rd, 2019

Media release: New year kicks off with slow sales

City of Calgary, February 1, 2019 –

As economic challenges linger into 2019, housing markets remain on a sluggish pace.

January sales totalled 804 units, 16 per cent below last year and 21 per cent below long-term averages for the month.

“The slow start to the year does not come as a surprise, as concerns about job losses and the state of the energy sector weigh on consumers. We anticipate that the slow market conditions will persist throughout much of the first quarter,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

The number of new listings entering the market remained comparable to last year, but those levels far surpassed sales activity. This is resulted in further gains in inventory levels. Elevated inventories relative to sales caused months of supply to rise to nearly seven months.

Persistent buyers’ market conditions have continued to impact prices. Citywide residential benchmark prices eased to $414,800 in January. This is nearly one per cent lower than December figures and four per cent below January 2018 levels.

HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached
•Detached sales eased by 17 per cent compared to last year. However, declines did not occur across all districts, as sales activity improved in both the North West and North East districts. The most significant sales declines occurred in the North and West districts of the city.
•New listing rose across all districts except the North East, North and South East districts. Only the North East district recorded easing months of supply compared to last year.
•Detached benchmark prices totalled $476,500, a one per cent decline compared to December and over four per cent lower than last January.
•Prices eased across all districts. The largest year-over-year declines occurred in the South, North West and City Centre districts.

Apartment
•Apartment sales totalled 126 units in January. This is 13 per cent below last year and over 20 per cent below long-term averages for the month.
•Slower sales and lower new listings helped inventory levels ease. Currently, there are 1,173 units in inventory, which is nine per cent lower than January 2018 levels.
•Despite some adjustments in inventory, months of supply remained elevated at nine months, impacting prices. While prices remained relatively flat compared to last month, they declined by two per cent compared to levels from last January.
•Prices remain well below previous highs, but there were some price improvements compared to last year in both the North East and South East districts.

Attached
•Sales declined for both row and semi-detached product types. New listings rose, causing inventories to rise for both product types.
•With the attached sector firmly reflecting buyers’ market conditions, prices eased by over four per cent for a January benchmark price of $313,700.
•Semi-detached prices eased by nearly five per cent compared to last year for a total of $393,100. The steepest declines occurred in the City Centre and South districts, with adjustments of over six per cent.
•Row prices declined by four per cent compared to last year for a total of $284,300. All districts recorded price declines, but the most notable decline occurred in the City Centre, where prices were nearly eight per cent lower than last year.

January 1 CREB release

Tuesday, January 29th, 2019

 

Media release: Job market weakness and lending restrictions a common thread in 2018’s housing market

City of Calgary, January 2, 2019 –

As oversupply continues in Calgary’s housing market, December prices eased by one per cent compared to last month and are over three per cent below last December.

“Persistent weakness in the job market and changes in the lending market impacted sales activity in the resale market this year,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“This contributed to elevated supply in the resale market, resulting in price declines.”

December sales totalled 794 units, a 21 per cent decline over the previous year. Overall year-to-date sales in the city totalled 16,144 units. This is a 14 per cent decline over 2017 and nearly 20 per cent below long-term averages.

Inventory levels in December sat at 4,904 units. This is well above levels recorded last year and 30 per cent above typical levels for the month. Elevated resale inventories in 2018 were caused by gains in the detached and attached sectors.

Throughout 2018, the months of supply remained elevated and averaged 5.2 months. This contributed to the annual average benchmark price decline of 1.5 per cent. Price declines occurred across all product types and have caused citywide figures to remain over nine per cent below the monthly highs recorded in 2014.

“Both buyers and sellers faced adjustments in expectations this year. Sellers had to compete with more choice in the resale market, but also the new-home market,” said CREB® president Tom Westcott.

“With less people looking for a home, it became a choice between delaying when to sell or adjusting the sale price. However, buyers looking for more affordable product did not find the same price adjustments that existed in some of the higher price ranges.”

More information on the 2018 housing market will be released at CREB®’s 2019 Forecast Conference & Tradeshow (www.crebforecast.com) on Jan. 30, 2019.

 

HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached

  • Detached sales declined across all districts in 2018. With citywide sales of 9,945 units, activity remains 21 per cent below typical levels for the year.
  • Detached inventories were higher than last year’s levels for each month of the year, including December. Slow sales caused the market to be oversupplied through most of 2018.
  • Detached benchmark prices totalled $481,400 in December, a one per cent decline over last month and a three per cent decline over last year. Overall, 2018 prices declined by 1.5 per cent compared to last year.
  • Prices have eased across most districts in 2018. The largest declines this year have occurred in the North East, North West and North districts.

 

Apartment

  • Apartment sales totalled 2,663 units in 2018. While the decline is less than other product types, levels are 22 per cent below long-term averages.
  • The apartment condominium sector has struggled with oversupply for almost three years and 2018 was no exception.
  • However, supply has been easing, as inventories this year averaged 1,584 units, one per cent below last year’s levels.
  • Despite slowing supply growth, the market remained oversupplied, causing further price declines. In December, benchmark prices were $251,500, over two per cent below last year. Annually, prices have declined by nearly three per cent for a total decline of 14 per cent since 2014.
  • Price declines this year have ranged from a high of nearly six per cent in the East district to a low of two per cent in both the City Centre and North West districts.

 

Attached

  • Declines for both row and semi-detached product resulted in 2018 attached sales of 3,536 units, a 15 per cent decline over the previous year and 14 per cent below long-term averages.
  • Slower sales activity prompted some pull-back in new listings, but this was limited to the row sector. Row new listings declined by four per cent and semi-detached new listings rose by nearly 15 per cent in 2018.
  • Despite some adjustments to new listings, inventory levels remained elevated, keeping the market in buyers’ market territory and putting downward pressure on prices.
  • In December, the semi-detached benchmark price totalled $397,500. This is a monthly and year-over-year decline of 0.8 and 3.8 per cent, respectively. Recent price declines have caused this sector to erase any of the gains that occurred last year, as 2018 prices remain just below 2017 levels. Overall, annual prices remain 1.4 per cent below 2014 peak levels.
  • Row prices have also been edging down. As of December, row prices were $288,400, a 1.5 per cent decline from last month and nearly four per cent below last year’s levels. Overall, 2018 prices remain two per cent below last year’s levels and nearly 10 per cent below previous highs.

CREB Dec 1/18 Challenging Economic Conditions

Tuesday, December 4th, 2018

Media release: Challenging economic conditions continue to impact the resale market

City of Calgary, December 3, 2018 –

Sitting below long-term averages, November sales in the city totaled 1,171 units.

For the year so far, sales activity has totaled 15,349 units, a 14 per cent decline over last year and nearly 20 per cent below long-term averages.

“Recent challenges in the energy sector have weighed on consumer confidence over the past month. Combined with weakness in the employment market and further gains in lending rates, this is impacting ownership demand,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

New listings eased by seven per cent in November compared to last year. The adjustment in new listings has helped prevent further inventory gains, with 6,501 units in overall inventory, but levels remain well above the 5,683 units in inventory seen last year and 32 per cent higher than typical levels for November.

“Higher inventories and weaker sales are resulting in buyer’s market conditions and price declines,” said Lurie.

The citywide benchmark price was $422,600 in November, nearly one per cent lower than last month and over three per cent below last year’s levels.

Year-to-date sales have slowed across all price ranges, except product priced below $200,000, which now represents nearly six per cent of all sales. The largest decline in sales has occurred in the $600,000 – $999,9999 range.

“In any market, affordable product is always desirable,” said CREB® president Tom Westcott.

“For buyers, it may mean being able to step into a home that was previously unattainable. It also means that sellers need to be keenly aware what is successfully selling in their neighbourhood and surrounding communities.”

HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached

  • Detached sales declined across all districts in November. With citywide sales of 679 units, activity remains 21 per cent below typical levels for the month.
  • New listings eased by three per cent compared to last year, due to declines mostly in the North East, North and South East districts. Year-to-date new listings this year have increased in all areas except the North East and East districts.
  • Inventories in the detached sector totaled 3,491 units, 26 per cent higher than last year’s levels. Months of supply sits at five months, well above the three-month typical for November.
  • Detached benchmark prices totaled $486,000 in November, a one per cent decline over last month and a three per cent decline over last year. This is nearly seven per cent below monthly highs recorded in October 2014.
  • Prices have eased across all districts in November. On a year-to-date basis, the largest declines this year have occurred in the North East and North districts. This is likely due to the increased competition from the new-home sector. The districts that remain furthest from price recovery are the North West and South districts.

Apartment

  • Despite year-over-year gains in sales in November, citywide apartment sales have totaled 2,557 units so far this year. This is five per cent lower than last year and 21 per cent below long-term averages.
  • The majority of activity in condos is located within the city centre, representing nearly 48 per cent of all the sales activity.
  • Following years of oversupply, the number of new listings in the apartment sector continues to ease, helping prevent further significant gains in inventories and even contributing to inventory reductions in the South, East and North East districts.
  • Despite some adjustments in inventories, most areas continue to struggle with oversupply, causing further price declines. Price declines this year have ranged from a high of nearly six per cent in the East district to a low of two per cent in both the City Centre and North West districts.

Attached

  • Year-to-date attached sales totaled 3,344 units, a 16 per cent decline over the previous year and 14 per cent below long-term averages. Sales activity eased across most districts except for the North East, where sales remained relatively stable because of improvements in row activity.
  • Overall, rising new listings continue to place upward pressure on inventory levels and the gains have mostly occurred with semi-detached product.
  • Oversupply conditions have weighed on prices. In November, the semi-detached benchmark price totaled $400,700. This is a monthly and year-over year decline of 0.67 and 3.3 per cent, respectively. Recent price declines have caused this sector to erase any of the gains that occurred last year, as year-to-date prices remain comparable to 2017 levels.
  • Row prices have also been edging down, but at a slower pace than semi-detached product. As of November, row prices were $292,900, a 0.2 per cent decline from last month and just over three per cent below last year’s levels. Overall, year-to-date prices remain nearly two per cent below last year’s levels and nearly 10 per cent below previous highs.

CREB Nov. 1/18 Oversupply weighs on prices

Thursday, November 1st, 2018

Media release: Oversupplied market weighs on prices

City of Calgary, November 1, 2018 –

Elevated inventory levels compared to sales, are causing prices to ease further in Calgary’s housing market.

Citywide benchmark prices totaled $426,300 in October, trending down for the fifth consecutive month and resulting in a year-over-year decline of 2.9 per cent.

“Job growth in this city remains a concern, as unemployment levels remain well above levels expected for this year. Rising costs of ownership also continue to weigh on housing demand,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“At the same time, housing supply levels are not adjusting fast enough to current conditions, resulting in price adjustments.”

Inventories and sales totaled 7,345 and 1,322 in October. This has resulted in months of supply of 5.6, above levels typical for this month. While some easing in new listing growth will help prevent further inventory gains, inventory levels remain near record highs for the month of October.

“With these types of market conditions, many potential buyers should be able to find the home that they are looking for with well priced listings appearing in certain price ranges,” said CREB® president Tom Westcott. “Sellers need to manage expectations and have accurate data in order to be aware of what is selling in their community.”

For each of the property types, sales activity has improved in the lower price ranges, leaving most of those segments relatively balanced. However, the upper end of the ranges has seen significant gains in supply compared to demand, which is likely having more of an impact on prices in those ranges.

HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached
•Detached sales in October totaled 829 units, for an 8.6-per-cent decline, resulting in a year-to-date decline of 15 per cent. This is the slowest level of detached sales since the late ’90s.
•Year-to-date, the largest decline in sales occurred in the $600,000 – $999,999 price range, reflecting slow demand coming from move-up buyers.
•For the second month in a row, new-listing growth eased, helping prevent further inventory gains. However, as this segment remains oversupplied, prices continue to trend down.
•Detached benchmark prices totaled $490,200 in October. This is below last month and three per cent below last year. On a year-to-date basis, prices remain one per cent below last year’s levels.
•As of October, year-over-year prices have eased across all districts, with the largest declines occurring in the North East, North West, South and South East districts. This is likely a result of added competition from the new-home sector.

Apartment
•Year-to-date apartment sales have totaled 2,316 units, nearly seven per cent below last year. New listings have also eased by six per cent, helping reduce the amount of inventory in the market.
•Despite the easing inventories, the months of supply remains elevated at 7 months.
•Year-to-date apartment condominium prices have eased by 2.8 per cent and remain 14 per cent below 2014 highs. Declines occurred across all districts, with the steepest declines occurring in the North East, East and South districts.

Attached
•The attached sector has recorded year-to-date sales of 3,098. This is 15 per cent below last year and 14 per cent below long-term averages.
•Meanwhile, despite recent easing in new listings, October inventories are the highest level on record.
•The oversupply is affecting both the semi-detached and row sectors, which have seen prices trend down over the past 5 months.
•Year-to-date, row benchmark prices have averaged $298,140 this year, nearly two per cent below last year and nine per cent below previous highs. However, prices have remained relatively flat in both the City Centre and North West districts.
•As of October, semi-detached prices were $403,400, one per cent lower than last month and nearly three per cent lower than last year. Despite recent declines, year-to-date citywide prices remain relatively flat compared to last year. This was most due to gains in the City Centre, North East and East districts offsetting declines in the North West, South and South East.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie
•Airdrie’s housing market continues to experience declining sales and increasing inventory compared to last year. Elevated supply levels have led to downward pressures on the benchmark prices for detached homes.
•Total year-to-date residential sales have reached 1,032 units, 11 percent below levels last year. Year-to-date, new listings have remained relatively stable, but remain well above long-term averages.
•Year-to-date average inventory levels are 19 per cent higher than. As a result, months of supply have been elevated, and presently stand at six months. This has translated to sustained pressure on benchmark price, with the year-to-date value of detached homes now sitting at $370,880, which is a year-over-year decline of nearly two percent.

Cochrane
•Year-to-date, residential sales have declined by 10 per cent, with 530 sales so far in 2018. These levels are comparable to similar periods in the past few years and higher than long-term averages.
•At 1,164 units, new listings have reached a historical peak for this period and well above long-term averages. Inventory levels in Cochrane for 2018 have been persistently elevated and are almost 17 per cent higher than the same period last year.
•This has started to place some downward pressure on prices. However, year-to-date detached benchmark prices have remained relatively stable compared to last year with a benchmark price of $424,900.

Okotoks
•Year-to-date residential sales have declined to 428 units in 2018, comparable to levels from 2011 and well below long-term averages.
•New listings are elevated at 936 units, which is eight per cent higher than last year’s levels and close to long-term averages. Inventory levels in October remain elevated with 232 units.
•Despite gains in the amount of supply compared to sales, Okotoks detached prices have seen some modest gains. Year-to-date benchmark prices for detached properties totaled $436,660, 1.25 per cent higher than last year.

OCT 1/18 CREB Persistent Buyers Market

Monday, October 1st, 2018

Persistent buyers’ market continues

City of Calgary, October 1, 2018 – With no change in the economic climate, Calgary’s sales activity totaled 1,272 units in September, a 13 per cent decline over the previous year and well below long-term averages. There was a pullback in sales across all product types, most notably the detached market.

“Calgary’s economy continues to struggle with unemployment, which rose again last month to over eight per cent. Concerns in the employment market, higher lending rates and shaken confidence are weighing on housing demand,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“At the same time, supply levels continue to remain high, resulting in persistent oversupply and price declines.”

Inventories totaled 7,941 units, pushing the months of supply to 6.25. This continuation in oversupply is placing downward pressure on prices. The unadjusted citywide benchmark price totaled $428,700 in September. This is nearly one per cent below last month and three per cent below last year’s levels.

“This is the new normal of Calgary’s real estate,” said CREB® president Tom Westcott.

“Some potential buyers may want to take advantage of the market conditions, but they face difficulties selling their existing home based on their expectations. This prevents them from purchasing something else.”

September sales have dipped, but third quarter figures generally point towards a slower decline in sales and some easing in new listings growth. This was not enough to impact inventory levels this quarter.

The Calgary economy continues to struggle, but there are some signs of improvement in the rental market, which could contribute to a slow reduction in overall housing supply,

HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached
•Year-to-date sales eased to 7,945 units, over 20 per cent below the 10-year average. Sales eased across all price ranges, except properties under $300,000, which posted a modest gain.
•Easing sales were met with some adjustments in new listings in September. However, inventories remain elevated and are higher than long-term averages in most districts.
•Months of supply rose to 5.5 months in September and continue to weigh on housing prices across all districts.
•Detached benchmark prices totaled $493,100 in September. This is a 0.8 per cent decline over last month and three per cent below the previous year.
•Prices have trended down in most districts in September. However, on a year-to-date basis, benchmark prices remain above last year in both the City Centre and West districts.

Apartment
•The apartment sector has seen the slowest decline in sales at six per cent so far this year. Like the detached sector, activity remains over 20 per cent below long-term averages, totaling 2,103 sales.
•For the fourth month in a row, new listings have generally trended lower than levels recorded last year. This has helped reduce some of the inventory in the market compared to the previous year.
•However, even with some reductions in inventory levels, the market continues to remain firmly in buyer’s territory when compared to the reduction in sales.
•With more supply than demand, benchmark prices for apartment condominium continued to ease in September, declining by 0.4 per cent over last month and 2.7 per cent compared to last year.

Attached
•The attached sector has recorded year-to-date sales of 2,814. This is 15 per cent below last year and 14 per cent below long-term averages.
•With no significant reduction in new listings, inventory levels remained elevated, pushing up months of supply to over seven months.
•Elevated levels of supply compared to demand persisted for both row and semi-detached product types. Like all other sectors, the oversupply has weighed on prices across all districts, except the City Centre, North East and East.
•While September semi-detached benchmark prices eased, year-to-date prices remained just above last year’s levels. The recent oversupply has eroded some of the steps made toward price recovery last year.
•Row benchmark prices have averaged $298,667 this year, nearly two per cent below last year and nine per cent below previous highs. Despite the citywide pullback, row prices have remained relatively stable in the City Centre, North West and South East districts.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie
•Airdrie’s housing market has exhibited buyer’s market conditions so far this year. This is largely due to weak economic conditions that have hindered growth in demand. This does not help alleviate excess supply and has led to a downward pressure on benchmark prices for detached homes.
•Year-to-date total residential sales in Airdrie have declined compared to last year and sit at levels comparable to activity recorded in 2012. Meanwhile, new listings have remained elevated, causing inventories to reach new highs for September.
•Elevated months of supply have continued to place downward pressure on prices. The year-to-date detached benchmark price averaged $371,244. This is a 1.7 per cent decline from 2017 levels and five per cent below previous highs.

Cochrane
•Affected by similarly weak economic conditions, the housing market in Cochrane has also experienced slight supply-side imbalances.
•Year-to-date sales in the town were recorded at 477 units, 59 units lower than 2017. Sales growth has been trending downward for most of the year. However, levels in 2018 are still higher than those recorded in 2015 and 2016.
•New listings in Cochrane have been persistently growing for most of the year and year-to-date levels are 269 units higher than long-term averages. Inventories have now reached a new September peak at 360 units, leading to elevated months of supply.
•The oversupply in the market has started to cause prices to trend down in the third quarter. However, it has not been enough to erase earlier gains, leaving year-to-date benchmark prices just above last year’s levels. So far this year, detached prices remain four per cent below recent highs.

Okotoks
•Okotoks is facing supply pressures in the market due to slowing sales and increases in new listings.
•Despite the presence of oversupply, benchmark prices have managed to remain relatively stable in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter. At $436,422, year-to-date detached benchmark prices have averaged nearly one per cent higher than the previous year, but remain three per cent below previous highs.

The data included on this website is deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate by the Calgary Real Estate Board
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