Housing market remains unchanged in January

Slow sales activity and inventory gains place downward pressure on prices

Calgary’s housing market is starting 2016 firmly in buyers’ market territory, much the same as last year ended.

“The recent slide in energy prices has raised concerns about near-term recovery prospects for the city,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “Energy market uncertainty and a soft labour market are weighing on many aspects of our economy, including the housing sector.”

City wide, January sales totaled 763 units, 13 per cent below last year and 43 per cent below long-term averages. While new listings declined by 16 per cent compared to January 2015, the number of new listings far outpaced the sales, causing inventory gains. January’s city wide months of supply levels rose above six months.

“Selection for buyers in all product types and price ranges has improved,” said CREB® president Cliff Stevenson. “More choice and low interest rates have encouraged some potential buyers to start window shopping. So far, this hasn’t translated into sales activity as many are waiting for steeper price declines from motivated sellers.”

The aggregate benchmark price of $447,300 in January was 1.21 per cent lower than the previous month and 3.27 per cent below the January 2015 price of $462,400.

“As expected, the imbalance between housing supply and demand is continuing to place downward pressure on prices,” said Lurie. “However, the recent price retraction has not erased all the gains recorded in recent years, as the benchmark price remains 4.41 per cent above the January 2014 price of $428,400.”

While all property types have recorded price contractions from recent highs, the largest price declines have occurred in the apartment sector as this segment has had elevated months of supply since the second quarter of 2015.

The apartment benchmark price totaled $281,900 in January, a year-over-year decrease of 6.35 per cent and 2.12 per cent lower than the previous month’s price. In fact, apartment sector prices have once again fallen below the 2007 monthly high of $301,500.

The detached segment of the market continues to show variations depending on price range. The under $500,000 segment remains relatively balanced. However, recent trends are pointing to weaker sales-to-new-listings ratios in the $500,000 to $600,000 range of the market.

“Calgary’s housing market continues to face a wide range of challenges,” said Stevenson. “Sellers are reflecting on their expectations and considering all options available to them, given the dynamics of their specific market. In this environment, buyers have the opportunity to carefully consider their housing needs and make a decision based on their lifestyle and future goals

Alberta home sales down year-over-year in January

The Alberta Real Estate Association (AREA) compiles provincial MLS® sales data for dissemination to REALTORS® and other interested groups. The data that is provided represents statistics provided to AREA by way of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). For more detailed statistical information for Boards/Associations or for individual areas, contact your local real estate Board/Association or your local REALTOR®.

The Alberta Real Estate Association (AREA) reports that a total of 2,277 residential unit sales were recorded through the MLS® Systems of real estate Boards/Associations in Alberta in January, down 13.8 per cent from the same month last year. The average MLS® residential price decreased 2.7 per cent from January 2015 to $371,620.

Three of Alberta’s ten real estate Boards/Associations saw an increase in monthly residential average prices from year-ago levels:

Board Year-Over-Year Change
Alberta West +13.1 per cent
Fort McMurray Region +2.7 per cent
Calgary Region +0.4 per cent

The seven remaining Boards/Associations saw the monthly residential average price decrease to varying degrees from January 2015:

Board Year-over-Year Change
Lethbridge Region -0.9 per cent
Grande Prairie Region -5.3 per cent
Central Alberta -7.7 per cent
Medicine Hat Region -8.4 per cent
Edmonton Region -8.4 per cent
Lloydminster Region (AB Only) -9.9 per cent
South Central Alberta -38.5 per cent

Note: The data above is national data and may not perfectly reflect the data reported by a Board/Association. The numbers represented are for the full Board/Association region, rather than city/town proper areas that may be reflected in a board’s name. Click here for a general guideline of Board/Association boundaries.

The value of all home sales in the province totalled $846 million for the month, falling 16.1 per cent from January 2015.

There were 9.8 months of inventory at the end of January 2016, up from 7.4 months at the same time one year ago.

New listings on the MLS® Systems of real estate boards in Alberta numbered 8,559 units in January, a decrease of 8.5 per cent from a year earlier, while active residential listings numbered 22,362 units at the end of January, up 15.1 per cent from one year earlier.

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From CREB Nov. 2/15
Prices decline for the second consecutive month

Sales activity remains well below long-term averages

Elevated inventory levels in October contributed to a second consecutive month of price declines in Calgary’s resale residential housing market.

Benchmark prices declined 0.7 per cent from the previous month, and 1.2 per cent from the same time last year, to $453,100.

“Persistent weakness in the overall economy continued to impact housing demand in Calgary as October sales were nearly 16 per cent below long-term averages,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“In addition, new listings did not decline enough to prevent inventory gains and, ultimately, price contractions.”

The steepest declines occurred in the apartment sector, where the benchmark price fell to $288,300, a 0.8 per cent decline from September and nearly four per cent from the same time last year.

Lurie attributed the declines to a continued rise in months of supply – from a low of three months in June to nearly six months in October.

“That sector is facing added competition from several new apartment projects, improved vacancy in the rental market and more supply in the attached sector,” said Lurie, noting months of supply in the sector has remained above four since August.

“When combined with a steep pullback in demand, it creates conditions that generally favour the buyer.”

Aggregate prices in both the detached and attached sector also recorded both monthly and yearly declines, but were moderate compared to apartments due to less severe drops in absorption levels.

“In this type of market, both sellers and buyers need to have those hard discussions with their real estate professionals about their objectives,” said CREB® president Corinne Lyall, noting increased competition from both the rental and new home markets.

“If sellers are serious about selling, they need to consider how they are positioning their home on the market. Buyers, meanwhile, have to consider whether that home satisfies their lifestyle needs.”

Overall, October sales in the city declined by 33 per cent year-over-year to 1,421 units, with year-to-date sales falling by more than 26 per cent.

Meanwhile, inventory levels during the month remained at 5,578 units, pushing months of supply up to 3.93.

Market balance in the detached sector, which accounts for more than 60 per cent of all sales in the city, varied depending on price segment.

More than half of detached sales in October occurred below $500,000, where demand relative to supply remained relatively tight – thereby potentially offsetting some of the price losses in the higher end of the segment.

“Sales activity has varied depending on market segment and price,” said Lyall.

“For example, while some price adjustments have occurred in the higher-end detached category, this is less likely for the under-$500,000 detached segment, which had more balanced conditions.”